September Arabica coffee (KCU25) fell -10.10 (-3.09%) today, while July iced roubusta coffee (RMN25) fell -161 (-4.04%).
Coffee prices have dropped sharply today after an updated weather forecast eliminates the possibility of coffee in Brazil’s coffee-growing areas of Sao Paulo and Minas Gerais.
Coffee prices have been under pressure for the past seven weeks, with Arabica falling to a 5-1/4-month low last Wednesday, with Robusta today’s coffee falling to its 13-month low today amid concerns about higher coffee production and adequate supply.
Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee harvest as of June 11 to June 11, Brazil’s 2025/26 coffee harvest rate was 35%, slightly lower than 37% of last year’s 37%, but consistent with the 5-year average, Brazil’s ongoing coffee harvest is at the price. The collapse shows that as of June 11, 49% of the Robertsta harvest and 26% of the Arabica harvest are complete. In some areas, the harvest in Brazil’s Arabica has been slowed down by heavy rain.
Meanwhile, Brazil’s Cooxupe Coffee Cooperative announced today that its members reported that the coffee harvest was 24.3% as of June 20. Cooxupe is Brazil’s largest coffee cooperative and Brazil’s largest coffee exporter.
On May 19, the US Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Services (FAS) predicts that Brazil’s coffee production will increase by 0.5% year-on-year (y/y) to 65 million bags, while Vietnam’s coffee production in 2025/26 will increase by 6.9% to 31 million bags. Brazil is the world’s largest Arabica coffee producer, and Vietnam is the world’s largest Robusta coffee producer.
Brazil’s lower than normal rainfall supports coffee prices. On Monday, Somar Meteorologia reported that there was no rain in the week ending June 21, the largest Arabica coffee growing area in Brazil.
Robusta coffee prices are basically supported, as Robusta coffee stocks on ice have dropped to 5,126 batches today. However, for bearish factors in Arabica prices, the ice-monitored Arabica coffee stocks rose to a 4-1/2-month high of 892,468 bags on May 27, with the higher bags below the bag as of Monday.
