Trump’s factor is to shape global politics, one election at a time, not necessarily to the president’s taste.
Centurists have seen fate in the major votes in Canada and Australia over the past two weeks, while parties borrowed from Maga Playbook have been lost.
President Trump has been in power for only three months, but his policies have adopted tariffs and an uplifting coalition, which has been trapped in domestic political struggles around the world.
While it is now said that anti-Trump forces are rising globally, it is clear that voters have Mr. Trump in their minds when making a decision.
Political cousins
Canada and Australia have a lot in common: the political system, a major mining industry, the sovereignty of King Charles. Now, they also have an extraordinary political story.
In both countries, the center-left ruler was in poor form and seemed ready to lose power before Mr. Trump took office. The leader in the polls is the Conservative Party, whose leaders flirt with Trump politics in style and in essence.
Within the weeks after Mr. Trump’s return to power, the political scenes in Canada and Australia changed in the same way: the incumbents of the center-left soared quickly before the conservative opposition and continued to win. Moreover, the conservative leaders of both countries not only lost their elections, but even lost their seats in parliament.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s campaign for a clear anti-Trump message puts the U.S. president’s threat to Canada at the heart of his campaign. Australia’s leader Anthony Albanese did not. But both men have anti-Trump bumps.
Conservative leaders face severe rejection on the ballot box. Canadian conservative head Pierre Poilievre and Australian leader Peter Dutton struggle to get rid of their destructive ties with Mr. Trump.
When Mr. Dutton proved unpopular, they went back or presided over some Trump policy recommendations, such as fundamentally cutting the public sector’s workforce. Even after the U.S. president threatened Canada’s sovereignty, Mr. Poilievre never really got rid of Trump’s approach.
Charles Edel, the Australian president of the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, is a think tank calling the Australian election a “blowout”. He suggested that, at least in part, it was due to Mr. Trump’s implicit invasion of the election, even if it focused primarily on domestic issues.
“There are enough similarities to the Canadian election that suggests that the fate of the Conservative Party has declined as Trump’s tariffs and attacks on U.S. allies have intensified,” he wrote in an email.
In Canada, some believe that the outcome of the Australian election is a sign of solidarity from cousins to the far south. “Albo!” an online meme says, swapping Mr. Albanese’s nickname for Mr. Carney’s hockey-style anti-Trump slogan: “Eelbow!”
Flights to safe
Mr. Carney benefited from the perception among voters and would be the stable hand in managing Mr. Trump and his unpredictable impact on the Canadian economy, which is deeply integrated with the U.S. economy and has suffered from tariffs and uncertainties. His background as an economic decision-maker is also in his favor.
Around the world, in Singapore, the argument for stability during turbulent times also seems to contribute to the incumbent People’s Action Party.
Last month, Prime Minister Lawrence Wong said in parliament that Singapore will be hit harder by new U.S. tariffs due to its reliance on global trade. He called on Singaporeans to prepare for more shocks and predict slower growth.
Just like Mr. Carney, who declared the old relationship between Canada and the United States “end” and Mr. Huang issued a frustrating warning ahead of the election. “The global conditions that have made Singapore successful may no longer hold over the past few decades,” he said.
Voters returned his party to power on Saturday, a result that has never been questioned but is still attracted by the party’s “fly to safe” strategy deployed.
“This is another case of the Trump effect,” said George, a book about Singaporean politics. “The deep concern for Trump’s trade war is driving a strong support from a large number of voters for the incumbents.”
Mixed effects
In Germany, an important Western ally was the one who held the first national election after Mr. Trump’s inauguration, and the impact of the Trump factor is not so direct, but it can still be felt.
Friedrich Merz, who will be sworn in as Germany’s new prime minister on Tuesday, has not profited politically from Mr Trump’s election, as Canada or Australia has done in recent votes.
But if Mr. Trump’s confrontation with the United States with European allies on defense and trade does not help Mr. Meiers before the vote, it will help him later.
Mr. Melz was able to push for a moratorium on spending restrictions amid Germany’s fiscal restrictions, which would make his job as prime minister easier. He did so by arguing that the old certainty about the United States’ commitment to a common defense has disappeared.
“Do you seriously believe that the U.S. government will continue NATO as before?” he asked lawmakers in March.
According to the polls, Maga-Sphere’s embrace of a far-right German party known as AFD also didn’t help, although Elon Musk once supported the party and conducted one of the activities via video streams.
The UK exception
An unpredictable U.S. president could have unpredictable consequences for foreign leaders as British Prime Minister Keir Starmer is quickly discovering.
Center-left leader Mr. Starmer won his election before Trump won his election, initially gaining praise for his business approach to dealing with the new U.S. president.
Unlike Mr. Carney, Mr. Starmer goes out of his way to avoid direct criticism of Mr. Trump, find a common cause with him where possible, and attempt to avoid breaking. Even Mr. Starmer’s political opponents were impressed after visiting the White House, which was considered successful.
Britain’s Trump allies have been working to defend against allegations from his sympathy for Russian President Vladimir V. Putin.
But Mr Stamer quickly ran out of steam after failing to impose a pleasant White House visit to the U.S. exemption from tariffs on British goods.
His Labour Party was hit hard last week when it voted in parts of England and other elections. It lost 187 council seats and a special parliamentary election in one of its strongholds.
By contrast, Mr. Farage’s party has achieved amazing success, not only winning this special election, but also winning twice the mayor and making great gains. His party won control of the lowest government tiers in several regions of the country for the first time.
Victoria Kim Sydney report; Sui-Lee Wee From Singapore; Christopher F. Schuetze from Berlin; and Stephen Castle From London.
