The mineral agreement signed by the U.S. and Ukraine on Wednesday could bring countless funds into joint investment funds between the two countries, which will help rebuild Ukraine whenever the war with Russia ends.
However, Ukraine’s unexplored resources are the subject of the transaction and will take years to withdraw and generate profits. These may not provide the wealth President Trump has long expressed.
It is unclear how the nine-page transaction works in practice in how the public texts of the Ukrainian government are. Though the Trump administration hopes Kiev uses its mineral wealth to repay past U.S. military aid, the idea of treating aid as debt has been eliminated in the final document.
The deal also appears to have particularly given Ukraine’s final entry into the EU, a move that has no objection to the United States and Russia.
However, no security assurance is mentioned – Ukraine has long tried to prevent Russia from regrouping after any ceasefire.
Still, the highly anticipated signing of the deal has almost certainly accomplished one thing that was nearly impossible two months ago: it linked Mr. Trump to the future of Ukraine.
“This agreement clearly shows Russia that the Trump administration has been centered on freedom, sovereignty and prosperous Ukraine for a long time,” Finance Minister Scott Bessent said in announcing the deal on Wednesday.
Analysts agreed on Thursday that the deal could guarantee Mr. Trump’s interest in Ukraine after he invested publicly.
“He is a businessman – he always does math,” said Volodymyr Fesenko, a leading political analyst in Kiev. “His business mindset shapes his approach to politics. So his motivations in the agreement can help us maintain our interest in Ukraine. How this works in practice is only time to illustrate.”
Members of parliament said Thursday morning that the Ukrainian parliament still had to ratify the agreement, which could be implemented in the next two weeks.
In the end, Ukraine seems to have managed to get something that it wants, but not everything. The noteworthy omission is that there is no security guarantee.
The signing of Mr. Trump’s 100th day of office is just the latest twist in his ever-changing war, with Russia beginning a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
Mr. Trump falsely accused Kiev of inciting war and appeared to be more kinship with Russian President Vladimir V. Putin than anyone in Ukraine. He repeatedly questioned why the United States became Kiev’s biggest ally under former President Joseph R. Biden Jr., who had no secret to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and asked Kiev to request more military aid.
The disease in Ukraine’s relationship with the United States was February 28, when Mr. Zelensky and Mr. Trump were initially expected to sign a profit-sharing mineral agreement in the Oval Office. The meeting was a disaster. Mr. Trump and Vice President JD Vance publicly condemned Mr. Zelensky, who was suddenly asked to leave the White House. The transaction is unsigned. In the consequences, the Trump administration temporarily suspended military aid and intelligence sharing with Ukraine.
But Mr. Trump also repeatedly said he wanted to end the war and even ran for the promise he would make within 24 hours. After that, Mr. Trump said he was not literally.
As the Trump administration has put pressure on Russia and Ukraine to agree to a peace agreement (at least a 30-day ceasefire), Ukraine is trying to look like a reasonable party. Mr. Zelensky, who has maintained a steady relationship with the Trump administration after the collapse of the Oval Office, immediately agreed to the idea of an unconditional 30-day truce. Mr. Putin did not.
Nevertheless, for Ukraine, mineral trading provides an opportunity for some kind of leverage.
Ukrainian officials are desperate to see the deal include some kind of security assurance from the United States. They fear that without a single person, Russia could violate any ceasefire – Moscow has done before.
However, Mr. Trump has said that establishing a joint investment fund with the United States is itself a security guarantee – if American companies and the U.S. government invest in the future of Ukraine, that alone will prevent Russia.
In many ways, despite a lot of back and forth, the deal signed on Wednesday with little fanfare, similar to the one that collapsed in February.
Ukraine’s reaction to the deal was mixed together on Thursday.
Vira Zhdan, 36, who lives in the southern Ukrainian city of Zaporizhzhia and is frequently attacked by Russia, said the deal could unfairly draw funds from Ukrainian resources to U.S. investors.
“These are snares that tighten around us and drag our country into a deeper pit,” she said. “We live here now, but that will be the consequences our descendants have to deal with. There is no doubt that this will leave a big mark on them.”
But Svitlana Mahmudova-Bardadyn, 46, lives in the Sumi area near the border with Russia, and she hopes the deal means Ukraine will receive more U.S. support, such as weapons. “This full-blown war will end and it will be better for us,” she added.
Oleksandra mykolyshyn Contribution report.
