What could be possible in 2025 after the confusing earth warmth on 2023 and 2024?
For 12 consecutive months, temperatures above the average temperature of 1850-1900, the Earth’s temperature has now dropped, partly due to the end of the natural cycle.
According to the nonprofit climate analysis organization Berkeley Earth, the global average temperature is 1.33 C above the pre-industry average In May, European Copernicus Climate Change Service (CCC) found Average monthly is 1.40 c Above pre-industrial average. (Climate agencies around the world use different methods to analyze global temperatures, so the difference).
While this seems good news, the truth is that 2025 is still one of the most passionate three years on record, according to Zeke Hausfather of Berkeley Earth.
“As the Elniño ended firmly, 2025 is going to set a new record at this point, but I still think being the second temperature recorded is a favorite, and it’s almost certainly the warmest year for the top three.”
Elniño is a natural cyclical warming in the Pacific region, coupled with the atmosphere, which could lead to global temperature rises, starting in mid-2023 and then peaking in 2024, which could be a record warmth for some confusing climate scientists.
What is particularly interesting in May is that the land surface temperature has been reduced a lot compared to the previous months. However, it remains second after 2024.
The sharp drop may be some “internal variability” that raises the land surface temperature, which may have been the end of this variability last month, Hoth’s father said.
Hausfather said that with the record making in 2025, what we can expect is that winter is an important thing to remember when we see the maximum temperature anomaly. So, this may be higher than what we see now in 2025.
On the road to the 1.5 C warming trend
Ocean temperatures were lowered in part at the end of the El Niño phenomenon, but remained at record highs. According to Berkeley Earth, the average ocean temperature in May was above the average of 1850-1900.
“At present, we are seeing ocean heat waves in the North Atlantic Ocean,” said Carlo Buontempo, director of Climate Change Services (C3S).
“[Ocean temperatures are] Cooler than last year and the year before, but warmer than any other year we have recorded. So, this is one of the things that depend on it [whether] We like to see glasses half full or half empty. It’s still a very warm ocean. ”
Although the Earth does reach a 12-month average of 1.5°C, this does not necessarily mean that the Paris Agreement’s goal failure is to lower the threshold for global warming below the threshold of 1.5 C. Long-term climates usually span 20 or 30 years.
Carbon budget runs out
But a study published Wednesday in the journal Earth Systems Science found that if emission rates continue at a rate of 2024, we only need three years to deplete the carbon budget to stay below the 1.5 C threshold.
“Record greenhouse gas emissions have rapidly narrowed the chances of limiting warming to 1.5 C,” said Joeri Rogelj, co-author of the Centre for Environmental Policy and the report at Imperial College London in a statement.
“The window that stays within 1.5°C is closing rapidly. Global warming is already affecting the lives of billions of people around the world.”
While this threshold may be violated, climate scientists like to emphasize that every degree is important.
But keeping warmer below 2 C – the threshold originally set by the Paris Agreement – requires a consistent effort to significantly reduce CO2 emissions, as UN Secretary-General Antonio Gutteres continues to emphasize.
Buontempo said he hopes the tools we have today will at least help us deal with the results of rising temperatures.
“I’m an optimist. I’ve always been an optimist and my feeling is that there are a lot of positive things in this horrible situation, including that we’ve never had so much information about the planet.”
“We never had so much knowledge and tools to simulate the consequences of what is happening now. I mean, our decisions are ours, right?”
