The first meeting between the U.S. and Iran on Saturday showed serious purpose and worked to avoid what both sides wanted, another war in the Middle East. They will talk again next Saturday, but the hard work is in the hard work of both countries and Israel, which is expected to be at most dissatisfied.
These conversations would be even more urgent if the first nuclear deal reached in 2015 was facilitated by Iran’s desire to get rid of its economic sanctions. Iran has been beaten by Israel and its regional agents, and still hopes for economic relief. But it also learned that the Islamic Republic itself is under threat, and that President Trump withdrew from the first deal by thinking it was too weak, probably wouldn’t be the “bombing they’ve never seen” facing Iran.
Iran’s supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei gave his negotiators at least one last chance to use Iran’s nuclear ambitions as lasting security.
Oman’s negotiations also promise some efficiency. A deal was reached between Iran and six countries in 2015 – five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany, the EU played the role of intermediary and took two years.
The negotiations were bilateral, with Europeans, Russia and China off the court. Although the United States remains the “great Satan” of Ayatollah Khamenei, it is also the key to limiting Israel and ensuring any lasting reconciliation. Iran insists on indirect negotiations through Oman, and Mr. Trump negotiates directly, both sides have managed to resolve the issue, speaking directly with Mr. Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff and Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi.
“It was a good start,” said Ali Vaez, Iran project director at Iran International Crisis Group. “They could have stumbled upon it, but they agreed to meet again and finally met and they agreed to the ultimate goal.”
Importantly, Mr. Trump and Mr. Witkov said their true bottom line is to ensure Iran will never be able to build nuclear weapons – although Trump officials are demanding before negotiating Iran to completely remove its nuclear program and abandon its missile program and its support for regional agents.
Iran made it clear that such a broad demand would leave it unprepared and end negotiations before it began. So if the government insists on doing so, it limits the targets that ensure Iran will never be able to create a nuclear bomb, which will greatly increase the chances of success of negotiations.
“Iranians are ready for icebreakers, but expect to hear directly with the United States, and most importantly, what the real U.S. bottom line is.” He said: “If it’s not a weapon, then they can negotiate on levels of enrichment, inspection, etc. But Iran doesn’t want to get stuck in situations where there is no real sanctions and wars that cannot be achieved and risk more.” “What Iran wants is obvious: reliable sanctions relief and a persistent deal.”
Iran insists that its nuclear program is entirely civilian, but it is close enough to weapons-grade mass uranium to create at least six bombs.
Nasr said that despite Mr. Trump’s distrust of Mr. Trump, Iranians believe he will be able to better ensure the sustainability of the deal he has reached and face the hard work of his own Republican Party. He said the Iranians never trusted Joseph R. Biden Jr.
“We are probably the best place after this meeting,” said Sanam Vakil, director of the Middle East and North Africa Program at Chatham House. She said there was a positive remark on both sides, saying that the plan forward was “a mutual understanding of the urgency needed, the opportunity and the signs of pragmatism.”
Then she added: “Of course, the hard stuff is right ahead.”
A serious deal will be very complex and technical, and it will take time. It also requires survival efforts to undermine negotiations between the two countries and Israel’s tough ones. Israel, which opposes the 2015 deal, hopes for a more comprehensive disarmament of Iran and has been talking about the need for a military strike now, when the regime is weak and air defense measures are severely damaged by Israeli air strikes.
Iran has vowed to destroy Israel in the past, and Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he hopes Iran will no longer be able to enrich any uranium. Israel cites the October 2023 Hamas attacks invoking Iran’s agents, including Hamas and Hezbollah in Lebanon, and hopes to ensure Iran cannot rebuild them.
But it may also be encouraged that Mr. Trump of Iran announces negotiations in the Oval Office next to Netanyahu, who is not happy about their views. Nasr said Iran will see “a strong signal from Trump that he is not owned by Netanyahu”.
It is hoped that an interim agreement can be reached at the next or both meetings, so that both parties have confidence to move forward, and that as long as the negotiations continue, both parties have taken short-term measures. They may include Iran’s agreement to freeze uranium enrichment and allow more inspections in exchange for Washington’s suspension of some of its “maximum pressure” sanctions.
“Iran may stick to a step-by-step process, which could take several years,” Mr Nasr said, “to help the deal take root before others take office and try to revoke it. “The longer process will also provide more security for Iran.
Despite this, Iran has no reason to extend the negotiations. “Iran’s leverage is its nuclear richness, and more time will not bring them more leverage,” Vaez said. Then there is the “quick sanctions ticking bomb.”
If any signatories (in this case, Europeans) believe there is no new deal or a significant progress, these sanctions can be restored, and the sanctions can be restored. But this must have happened before October 18, when the ability to “strike back” expired. Officials say Europeans are exploring whether the deadline can be delayed, but the mechanism for this is not yet clear.
In any case, analysts agree that Iran does not want to be blamed for the failure of these negotiations. If they do fail and war follows, the regime hopes to blame the United States for its expressions and malice.
So, if an agreement can be reached, Iran will hope to guarantee this time that it will be durable and engage in commercial engagement in a meaningful long-term way. Iran will want to know “how Trump guarantees protections that other presidents cannot do.”
She said the United States will want to know what to ensure Iran can provide for Israel’s security and stability in the larger Middle East.
“A deal has to be mutually beneficial, but it requires a lot of trust and accountability along the way, which both sides simply don’t have at this moment,” she said.
