Democrats hope to win a long-term victory in the special elections held in Florida’s First and Sixth Congressional Districts on Tuesday as they hope to undermine the Republicans’ narrow majority in the House.
These regions are a large number of Republicans: in November, President Trump won Florida’s first place with a 37-point lead and scored 30 points with a sixth point.
But special elections tend to be better for Democrats, who have already achieved dissatisfaction in several state legislative elections this year. In January, the Democratic candidate for the Iowa state Senate seat won four points in a district of Mr. Trump. In March, a Pennsylvania Democrat scored two points in a special state Senate election where Trump scored 10 points last year.
Further boosting Democrats’ hopes, with some recent polls finding that District 6 games are more important than expected.
We are tracking partisan divisions among voters who voted in the Florida Special House of Representatives competition. While voter data may be useful in knowing which party has an advantage, it cannot ultimately tell us who will win. On the one hand, Democratic or Republican voters may not necessarily vote for the party’s candidate. Furthermore, the majority of voters are not registered with either party.
We have divided the turnout into two buckets: “early voting,” which includes voters who return to mail votes and voters who vote in person and “election day votes,” which will fill on Tuesday when people vote in person. The first poll will end at 7 p.m. on Tuesday.
Note that partisanship can vary greatly between those who voted in person on Election Day and those who voted early. Overall, voters who voted early, especially those who voted by mail, were more democratic than those who voted in person on Election Day.
In the context, our tracker also includes voter turnout in these areas of the 2024 presidential election and the results of the presidential election, participating in early and Election Day voters.
Florida’s first congressional district was formerly represented by Matt Gaetz, who resigned a few days after being nominated as attorney general by Mr. Trump. Mr. Gates finally withdrew his considerations. Democrat Gay Valimont and Republican Jimmy Patronis are voting.
Florida’s sixth congressional district was evacuated by Michael Waltz, and President Trump chose him as his national security adviser. Mr. Waltz recently joined an Atlantic editor in a signal group chat, with senior U.S. officials discussing sensitive military plans. Democrat Joshua Weil and Republican Randy Fine are running for his old seat.
Jonah Smith Contribute data analysis.
