President Trump has made it clear that he intends to defeat the dominant global economic order. Within 100 days, he made significant progress in achieving this goal.
Mr. Trump stirred up a trade war, scrapped the treaty and suggested that Washington might not defend Europe. He is also demolishing government infrastructure that provides know-how and experience.
The changes have deepened. But the world is still stirring. The midterm elections within two years may have eroded the Republican majority in Congress. Mr. Trump’s rule was constitutionally authorized to end within four years. Can the next president come in and remove what the Trump administration does?
As Michael Czerny, the close assistant of Pope Francis, said of the Catholic Church: “We have not done more than 2,000 years to roll back.”
The same can be said about global geopolitics. Even at this early stage, however, historians and political scientists agreed that the changes Mr. Trump made may be difficult to reverse in some key statistics.
Just like the erosion of American trust, it is a resource for generations of construction.
“Maga Base and JD Vance will remain for a long time after Trump leaves,” said Ian Goldin, professor of globalization and development at Oxford. No matter who occupies the White House next, the conditions to push for the “Make America Great Again” movement (expanding inequality and economic insecurity) remain. He said there is still a concern about the rest of the world that “there may be another ace in the future.”
As a result, allies are working to build trade partnerships and establish security alliances that exclude the United States. The EU and South American countries have recently created one of the world’s largest trade zones.
Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney recently proposed a new transportation network to simplify access to global markets outside the United States. Canada is also negotiating to join the European military construction to reduce its dependence on the United States, while the UK and the EU are working to complete a defense agreement.
“The world is moving forward,” Godin said. Supply chains will be rescheduled, new partnerships will be rescheduled, and foreign students, researchers and technical talents will find other immigration locations. “The United States will not quickly restore its economic status,” he said.
“It’s not just the United States that’s so different now,” he added. Mr. Trump is inspiring authoritarian leaders around the world, which further cuts the rules-based system.
Second, Mr. Trump’s contempt for international institutions will only enhance China’s influence, a primary goal of his attempt to use economic pressure.
Orville Schell, director of the Center for Relations at the Asian Social Center in New York, said the government is creating “a huge opportunity for Xi Jinping and China.”
China’s top leader Xi Jinping is seeking to capitalize on Mr. Trump’s trade protectionist transformation and chaotic policy reversals to better become Beijing, a defender of free trade and a new leader in the global trading system.
Xi Jinping’s arguments resonate especially among many emerging economies in Latin America, Asia and Africa.
Africa is a good example. Mr. Trump has burned down the U.S. International Development Agency, which provides food and health care to the poorest in the world. The State Council’s restructuring plan has proposed to cancel almost all diplomatic tasks across the continent.
By contrast, China has made in-depth investments in Africa as part of its belt and road initiatives and has worked to control key minerals on the mainland. Analysts say Washington’s withdrawal creates a power vacuum that allows China to consolidate its position and gain greater control over mining rights.
Mr. Trump’s hostility to his allies could also undermine the administration’s efforts to put advanced technology in China in recent years. Those previously close relationships are crucial to convince the Netherlands and Japan to stop exporting high-end semiconductor equipment to China.
Antony Hopkins, a history professor at Cambridge University, added that Mr. Trump has forgotten the important role China plays as an international investor and a U.S. debt buyer. If China’s chances of entering the large U.S. consumer market are severely limited, “You are turning to undermining China’s ability to invest in U.S. Treasury bills, and if you do, you’ll shoot under your feet.”
Another area captured between the United States and China is Southeast Asia. But China has gained an opportunity to strengthen its ties with Mr. Trump’s threat and then suspending export-oriented economies through early July, with potential devastating tariffs in countries such as Vietnam, Bangladesh and Indonesia.
Finally, the remains of the federal government’s research and data collection capabilities have the potential to undermine the United States’ scientific excellence and competitive advantage. According to the National Center for Science and Engineering Statistics, the federal government funded 40% of long-term basic research for technological and scientific breakthroughs in the country.
The government is cutting billions of dollars in grants for universities, scientists and researchers, undermining work on topics such as environmental hazards, disease control, climate and clean energy programs, computer processing, agriculture, defense and artificial intelligence. It cuts funds for cybersecurity efforts to protect power grids, pipelines and telecommunications. Thousands of veterans and emerging experts were fired.
When U.S. and foreign researchers turn elsewhere to seek grants, employment, and academic freedom, institutions worry about brain power consumption.
It is also not easy to quickly rebuild a network of people, help, information and logistical knowledge contained in a disbanded or emptied agency.
“It’s a revolution that is committed not only to undermining policies, but also to undermine institutions,” said Schell of the Asian Association. Even if Democrats restore power, it’s not clear that “there will be a revival structure, or whether it must be rebuilt.”
Sometimes signature events like the fall of the Berlin Wall in 1989 are the end of an era. However, if the pressure on the system is so extreme that it cannot be hit back, it is not always clear in real time.
David Ekbladh, a history professor at Tufts University, said many people think the Nixon Shock represents the disruption. In 1971, President Richard M. Nixon terminated the fixed exchange rate system and ruled the value of the dollar from gold.
Author William Greider calls this the “exact date” of the end of the global economy’s “singular dominance of America.” Chaos lingers global markets, and U.S. allies fear that the president’s unilateral decision would undermine the post-war cooperation system. Despite this, the larger economic order remains.
“The game changed, but it was not a revolution,” Mr. Eckbrad said. Negotiations with the open market continued, the U.S. league remained intact, and 10 people formed a new arrangement. The United States is still widely regarded as the leader of the free world due to international respect for the rule of law.
Eckbrad said the question in the United States now is how deep the support of the system is. These trends of deep dissatisfaction with the global economy have been bubbled up for a long time, with many voting for Mr. Trump as he promised to subvert the system. “Does the American people hope this will disappear?”
