In the Syrian capital Damascus, the country’s new leaders held a national solidarity meeting and welcomed foreign guests as crowds gathered in cafes to speak freely for the first time in decades.
But in the Damascus-controlled area, 400 miles away from northeast Syria, fighting has taken place for years. Drones buzzed during the day and night, while air strikes and artillery fire forced thousands of people to flee their homes.
The battle there confronted two opposing militias – the Syrian Democratic Forces led by the U.S.-backed Kurdish, and the Syrian Arab militia supported by Türkiye. The battle has only intensified since the Islamic rebels removed Syria’s long-time dictator Bashar al-Assad in early December.
In the conflict, including the new interim president Ahmed al-Shara, who unified the entire country, controls the capacity of many of its religious and national armed groups, and continues to examine the terrorist group Islamic State, which has begun to gather its forces again in parts of Syria. Neighbors fear that any number of factions could cross their borders.
The fate of the Syrian Kurds is also a balanced fate, and the fate of the Syrian Kurds accounts for about 10% of the population. Over the years, the Kurds have carved a semi-autonomous region in northeastern Syria.
One of the driving forces behind the Northeast fight is the growing advantage of the Turkish government over the Kurds, which Türkiye sees as a threat both at home and in neighboring Syria as some violent Kurdish factions push a separate country.
At home, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan won last week when the Kurdish separatist movement, the leader of the Kurdish separatist movement, fought against the Turkish state, called on his fighters to put down their weapons and disband. Two days after leader Abdullah Ocalan appealed, the PKK announced a ceasefire in Türkiye.
Türkiye has had a greater influence in Syria over the past few months as its relations with rebel groups overthrew Mr. Al-Assad.
The PKK decisions over the past week have echoed throughout northeastern Syria. Some of the fighters of the Syrian Democratic Forces also originated from the PKK, and the Kurdish leader of the Syrian forces, Mazloum Abdi, has been a follower of Ocalan’s ideology. But when talking about the PKK leaders’ appeal for disarmament, he said: “It has nothing to do with the SDF”
The new government in Damascus is putting pressure on Syrian Democratic Forces to disarm and merge into a national military force as it calls on other armed groups in the country. But so far, Syria’s Democratic Forces have been reluctant, fearing that doing so could threaten Kurdish autonomy in northeastern Syria.
Mr Abdi said he hopes his troops will become part of a new country Syrian army, but he also hopes that the troops will retain their weapons and continue to operate in northeast Syria.
However, Mr. Erdogan opposes any autonomy of the organization. He recently called the Syrian Democratic Forces “separatist murderers”, suggesting they are similar to the PKK and saying they should “say goodbye to weapons or be buried.”
For Syria’s neighbors and many in the international community, it is of concern that if Syria’s Kurds are included in the national forces, they may no longer be able to control the ISIS.
Syrian Democratic Army began fighting during the 13-year civil war in Syria, when the Islamic State controlled much of Syria and neighboring Iraq. In proving to fight the ISIS, they have won the crucial U.S. military support, including weapons, funds and training – the most effective force in Syria with Syria.
The Kurd-led forces also guarded more than 20 prisons in northeast Syria, including about 9,500 ISIS fighters and nearby camps, including family members of about 40,000 ISIS fighters.
“Syria is the most important issue at the moment,” said former Iraqi Foreign Minister and Kurdish Hoshyar Zebari, who maintains close ties with many regional leaders. Mr Zebari said that the Kurdish problem, especially in avoiding the ISIS’s reluctance, is particularly important, as instability tends to spill over to neighboring countries.
“We know that nothing happening in Syria will stop at the Syria-Iraq border,” Mr Zebari said, noting that during the Syrian civil war, the conflict fell into Iraq and the Islamic State took over northern Iraq. Millions of Syrian refugees fled to neighboring countries and Europe.
The pressure to join the new Syrian government and defend Kurdish autonomy in Syria puts Mr. Abdi in a difficult position. He could accept the new Syrian government, hoping that this would guarantee long-term security measures for the Syrian Kurds. But he also faces calls from some Kurdish factions to travel to semi-independent regions.
In a briefing with reporters last week, Mr. Abdi walked a thin line. He said the Kurds welcomed the new government in Damascus, but he also made it clear that he was reluctant to disband his troops, especially ceding the fight against the Islamic State to an untested Syrian army.
“The SDF has a lot of experience in the fight against ISIS and we have the advantage that we offer to the new Syrian army,” he said.
It is unclear whether Mr al-Shara can convince Turkish-backed militias to stop attacking the Kurds.
Another big unknown is that the Trump administration will decide the United States to participate in Syria. During President Trump’s first term, he tried to evacuate U.S. troops from Syria, reduce support for Syria’s Democratic Forces and risk opening up ISIS fighters.
The Pentagon urges the preservation of a small U.S. force in Syria to carry out complex operations and to train and review Syrian Democratic Forces.
But now, the fear of Northeast residents is support for the support of the Kurdish-led Syrian forces. Kurds and Arab residents in the region both said they were tired of conflict, but the prospect of a peaceful solution looked far away.
Khokh, a 40-year-old boy who crossed the border from Syria to Iraq with his family, said the worst battles were far from their village Deric, but the buzz of Turkey surveillance drones has remained unchanged over the past few months. She asked for recognition only by her name due to concerns about safety.
“When we hear drones and planes, we feel scared every day, and sometimes my kids aren’t outside for a week because we’re afraid to even send them to school,” she said. “My 11-year-old daughter doesn’t even go to the bathroom alone.”
Many people do not believe that the new government in Damascus will be able to protect them from ISIS security or respect its racial background. In the past, Kurds had fewer rights than Arabs, and some were not granted citizenship.
“We don’t know what the new government will do to us,” said Sheikh Khalil Elhilali, 75, the leader of the mixed Syrian Arab and Kurdish tribe. “We want the war and the battle to stop.”
The most pressing concern for Syria’s Arab neighbors is that thousands of ISIS fighters held in prisons operated by Kurdish in northeastern Syria remain under guard and keep an eye on the sprawling camps of their families.
If even a few of the 9,500 ISIS prisoners, many of whom are hardened fighters, even a few will break into prison, this will represent a major threat.
Mr Zebari said the prison was “a time bomb”.
